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Kalshi and prediction markets in Illinois: taxes and legal status

Illinois taxes gambling winnings and prediction market profits as income (4.95% flat). It doesn't let you deduct gambling losses, so gambling winnings are taxed in full on your state return.

As of October 27, 2026, no court order in Illinois stops Kalshi or other platforms from operating, and none protects them. Where it stands

Checked October 27, 2026 against Illinois’s tax department, court dockets and regulator records.

Illinois at a glance

Income tax
4.95% flat
Gambling losses
No
2026 federal 90% rule
No state income tax
Prediction markets
Being fought in court

Income tax

How does Illinois tax gambling and prediction market winnings?

Illinois' flat income tax rate is 4.95%.

Illinois taxes short-term trading gains as ordinary income at 4.95%.

Gambling losses

Can you deduct gambling losses in Illinois?

Illinois doesn't allow a deduction for gambling losses. The 2025 Schedule M instructions say you cannot subtract anything not listed on Schedule M. Winnings stay in income, so a trader with losses can owe tax on net-zero or net-negative wagering.

  • Illinois taxes gambling winnings as income. Illinois Lottery and other winnings are in federal adjusted gross income, which is where the Illinois return starts.
  • Illinois has no itemized deductions.
  • Gambling winnings over $5,000 that are subject to federal withholding have Illinois tax withheld at the full 4.95% rate with no exemptions (Form IL-5754). Illinois Lottery payments of $1,000 or more are withheld.

Timeline · 2 steps

Every step in Illinois, in order

2 steps since Dec 18, 2025, oldest first. Each links the filing, order or page it comes from.

  1. Dec 18, 2025

    Court · U.S. District Court, N.D. Illinois · Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. v. Raoul (No. 1:25-cv-15406)

    Coinbase sued the Illinois attorney general and gaming officials in Chicago federal court over its Kalshi-backed sports contracts.

    CourtListener docket, Coinbase v. Raoul

  2. Jun 23, 2026

    Court · U.S. District Court, N.D. Illinois · KalshiEX LLC v. Raoul (No. 1:26-cv-07363)

    Kalshi sued Illinois officials in Chicago federal court, saying federal law keeps the state from regulating its event contracts.

    CourtListener docket, KalshiEX v. Raoul

Federal courts

What the federal courts and the CFTC have said

States say prediction market sports contracts are bets that their gambling laws cover, while Kalshi and the CFTC say they are swaps, a kind of derivative that only the federal Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC regulate. The Third Circuit appeals court sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April 2026, while the Ninth Circuit (Nevada, August 2026) and the Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee, September 2026) ruled for the states, all at the preliminary stage. The Fourth Circuit (Maryland) heard argument in May 2026 and had not ruled as of October 27. New Jersey's petition to the Supreme Court, Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299), is waiting on Kalshi's response due November 9, 2026, and the Court has not yet said whether it will hear the case. On October 9, 2026 the CFTC proposed a rule defining event contracts as swaps.

  1. Apr 6, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty (No. 25-1922)

    By a 2-1 vote, the appeals court for New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware upheld an order that stops New Jersey from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts for now. It found Kalshi likely to win its argument that federal law overrides the state. This is a preliminary ruling, not a final judgment.

    Third Circuit opinion, Apr. 6, 2026

  2. Aug 28, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Assad (No. 25-7516)

    A unanimous three-judge panel upheld the order that lifted Kalshi's protection against Nevada, so Nevada may enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts. The court held that sports contracts are not swaps under federal law. It sent Kalshi's election contracts back to the district court. This is a preliminary ruling.

    Ninth Circuit opinion, Aug. 28, 2026

  3. Sep 2, 2026

    Court · Supreme Court of the United States · Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC (No. 26-299)

    New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit ruling. Kalshi's response is due November 9, 2026 after an extension. Many states, tribes, the NFL and others have filed friend-of-the-court briefs. The Court has not decided whether to take the case.

    Supreme Court docket No. 26-299

  4. Sep 16, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit · Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi, Inc. (No. 25-7504)

    In a case brought by two California tribes, the court held the tribes are likely to win their claim that Kalshi's sports contracts offered on tribal lands break the federal Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, and sent the case back to the lower court. A Lanham Act (false advertising) claim was rejected.

    Ninth Circuit opinion, Sept. 16, 2026

  5. Sep 25, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Schuler (Ohio) and KalshiEX LLC v. Orgel (Tennessee) (Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235)

    A unanimous panel upheld a federal judge's refusal to block Ohio's gambling laws and threw out the order that had protected Kalshi in Tennessee. It held Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps and, even if they were, federal law does not override the states' gambling laws. The cases go back to the lower courts.

    Sixth Circuit opinion, Sept. 25, 2026

  6. Oct 9, 2026

    Regulator · Commodity Futures Trading Commission

    The CFTC proposed a rule that would expressly define event contracts, including those on sports, politics, culture and weather, as swaps, which would place them under federal rather than state oversight. The public may comment for 30 days after Federal Register publication (91 FR 66022). It is a proposal, not a final rule. The same day the CFTC issued an interim rule excluding casino-style gambling products, such as sportsbook wagers and casino games, from the swap definition (91 FR 65969).

    CFTC press release 9310-26, Oct. 9, 2026

  7. Oct 26, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Martin (Maryland) (No. 25-1892)

    No ruling yet. The appeal was argued May 7, 2026 and the parties were still filing supplemental authorities on Oct. 26, 2026.

    CourtListener docket, Fourth Circuit No. 25-1892

Your trades

Kalshi and Polymarket profits in Illinois

The IRS hasn’t said how prediction market trades are taxed, so you pick one of four federal methods: capital gains, ordinary income, gambling or Section 1256. Illinois starts from your federal figures, so the method you choose federally generally carries onto your state return. If you report as gambling, the loss rules above apply. The four methods, compared.

The court cases are about whether Illinois can license or stop the platforms. None of them decides how your trades are taxed. Trades you already made, including positions an order made you close, still count in your tax year.

Questions

Questions about Illinois

Does Illinois tax gambling winnings?
Illinois taxes gambling winnings and prediction market profits as income (4.95% flat). It doesn't let you deduct gambling losses, so gambling winnings are taxed in full on your state return.
Can I deduct gambling losses in Illinois?
Illinois doesn't allow a deduction for gambling losses. The 2025 Schedule M instructions say you cannot subtract anything not listed on Schedule M. Winnings stay in income, so a trader with losses can owe tax on net-zero or net-negative wagering.
Is Kalshi legal in Illinois?
As of October 27, 2026, no court order in Illinois stops Kalshi or other platforms from operating, and none protects them. Kalshi and Coinbase have sued Illinois officials in federal court in Chicago. Kalshi's June 2026 suit challenges a new state budget law that Kalshi says would require a sports wagering license and tax event contracts.
Does the court fight change how my trades are taxed?
No. These cases decide whether a state can license or stop the platforms. None of them decides how your trades are taxed, and trades you already made still count in your tax year.

States with the same rule on losses: Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont. All states.

Tax facts checked against Illinois’s own tax pages on October 27, 2026; legal status on October 27, 2026. Rules and cases change, so confirm with current instructions before you file.

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