Prediction market tax software, compared

The short answer

The method you file under can move your bill by thousands of dollars, and the IRS has not said which one is right. So the tool that matters is the one that shows you every option on your own trades before you choose. That is what WagerMints was built to do.

• All four federal methods, priced side by side: capital gains, ordinary income, gambling and Section 1256. Realize prices three; crypto tax tools price one.
• Kalshi and the international polymarket.com: upload a Kalshi export or paste a wallet address. Realize does not read polymarket.com wallets.
• Free to see your numbers. Filled IRS forms are $39 per tax year (free during the beta). Realize charges $59 a year for forms and $159 with e-filing.
• Nothing kept, nothing recorded. No account, no key, trades processed in memory, and no session replay.

Side by side

What you get with WagerMints

• Your four bills, not one guess. The report runs your actual trades through every federal method and shows the dollar gap between the cheapest and the priciest, with the tax authority behind each one.
• The full polymarket.com history. Paste a wallet address and we read your public history, including losing positions you never redeemed, which an activity CSV leaves out.
• Kalshi rewards caught. Rewards and rebates show up only as credit rows in Kalshi’s activity export. We keep them out of your trading results and flag them as income, so they are neither missed nor counted twice.
• Section 1256 handled straight. It is in the report and labelled as contested, and it is switched off for polymarket.com wallet trades, which were never on a CFTC-regulated exchange.
• Numbers you can check. Every figure traces back to your trades, and we publish how we test the engine.

WagerMints vs Realize

Realize connects to Kalshi and Polymarket US with an API key and prices your year three ways. It leaves out ordinary-income treatment, so one of the four ways people actually file never shows up in its comparison. It does not read the international polymarket.com. And its forms are sold on an annual plan: $59 a year, or $159 with e-filing.

The bigger difference is what it holds onto. Connecting means Realize keeps your API key (encrypted) and your synced trade history. Its own privacy policy says its analytics provider “records a replay of every session” and that this “does include your figures, your positions and your charts.” WagerMints keeps none of that and runs no session replay at all (how we handle your data).

WagerMints vs PredictionTax

PredictionTax also lists four methods. It reads Kalshi through an API key it says it discards after import, Polymarket on-chain, and several sportsbook and broker CSVs. Pro is $29 for IRS PDFs and a summary letter. With WagerMints there is no key to hand over at all for Kalshi: you upload the export Kalshi already gives you, and you can see every number for free before you pay for anything.

WagerMints vs crypto tax tools

Summ, CoinLedger, DYOR.tax and similar products can import a Polymarket wallet, and Summ added Kalshi in March 2026. They treat every position as property and stop there. That handles the USDC moving in and out of a wallet. It does not answer the question that actually changes your bill: which of the four treatments applies to an event contract. If you already use one for your crypto, use WagerMints for the prediction-market side.

WagerMints and your CPA

The final call on which method to file belongs to you and your preparer. Many preparers are still learning prediction markets, and that research lands on your bill. Bring them a WagerMints report instead: trades matched, priced four ways, with the authority for each method, so the meeting is a short review rather than a research project.

Six things to check before you pick a tool

1. Fees in the basis. Buy fees should raise your cost and sell fees should cut your proceeds. Dropping them overstates your gain.
2. A payout is not a profit. When a contract settles, the taxable amount is the payout minus what you paid.
3. Every method, not one. If a tool shows a single number, ask which treatment it assumed and why.
4. Straight talk on Section 1256. It is contested for event contracts, and it does not apply at all to offshore polymarket.com trades. A tool that defaults to it without saying so is making your riskiest decision for you.
5. Income outside your trades. Kalshi rewards and rebates show up only as credit rows in Kalshi’s activity export. Ask whether the tool sees them.
6. What it keeps. Read the security page. Does it store your key? Your trades? Does it record your screen?