WagerMintsThe tax rules behind prediction markets, worked out
Plain-English writeups of the rules that actually apply to Kalshi and Polymarket trading: the four federal treatments, the Section 1256 argument, the 2026 gambling-loss cap, and how state taxes stack on top. Every figure is checked against the same engine and citations the report uses.
June 15, 2026 · 5 min read
How Are Kalshi and Polymarket Trades Taxed? The 4 Methods Traders Actually Use
No IRS ruling covers prediction markets yet. The four treatments filers actually use, and what each one costs.
The WagerMints Team
Prediction-market tax research
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October 26, 2026 · 4 min read
We Ran the Tax Math on Polymarket's Biggest Wallets. One Lost $104,386 and Would Be Taxed on $157,326
A wallet that lost $104,386 in 2025 would report $157,326 of income under gambling rules. What 81 big wallets show.
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October 26, 2026 · 5 min read
How to Report Kalshi and Polymarket on Your Taxes, Form by Form (and in TurboTax)
No form shows your trading profit, so you enter it yourself. Where each method's numbers go, on paper and in TurboTax.
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October 21, 2026 · 4 min read
The 2% Federal Wagering Tax: Could It Reach Kalshi Traders?
A new paper says prediction markets may owe the 2% federal wagering tax. Who would pay, and what it means for you.
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October 16, 2026 · 4 min read
Are Kalshi and Polymarket Losses Tax Deductible? It Depends on One Choice
One $10,000 loss can cut your tax, carry forward, reach back three years, or vanish. Your method decides which.
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October 14, 2026 · 4 min read
Gambling, Capital or 60/40? Where the Tax Experts Actually Land in 2026
Gambling, capital or 60/40? Who argues what, from the Tax Law Center to KPMG, and which way the weight is moving.
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October 10, 2026 · 6 min read
The CFTC Wants to Call Event Contracts Swaps. Here's What That Does to Your Taxes
The CFTC wants event contracts defined as swaps. It leaves tax to the IRS, but the label weakens the 60/40 case.
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- Polymarket Tax Study: 81 Big Wallets, Three Tax MethodsData
- How to Report Kalshi and Polymarket on Your TaxesFiling
- The 2% Federal Wagering Tax and Prediction MarketsExcise tax
- Are Kalshi and Polymarket Losses Tax Deductible?Losses
- Prediction Market Taxes: Where Tax Experts Land (2026)Expert views
- CFTC Event Contracts as Swaps: What Changes for Your TaxesCourts & regulators
- Kalshi Supreme Court Case: What It Means for Your TaxesCourts & regulators
- Kalshi Perpetual Futures: How Are They Taxed? (2026)Perpetual futures
- Kalshi Tax Rate 2026: What You Pay on Winnings (Table)Tax rates
- Does Kalshi Take Taxes Out When You Withdraw?Withholding
- Does Kalshi Send a 1099? The $600 Rule, ExplainedReporting & 1099s
- Robinhood Event Contracts Taxes: Your Statement ExplainedReporting & 1099s
- Section 70114 (P.L. 119-21): The 90% Wagering Loss RuleGambling & OBBBA
- Prediction Market State Taxes 2026: Levies and Trap StatesState tax
- Gambling Losses in 2026: The New 90% Deduction LimitGambling & OBBBA
- Section 1256 and Kalshi: Does the 60/40 Rule Apply?Section 1256
- How Are Kalshi and Polymarket Trades Taxed? 4 MethodsOverview
Run this against your own trades
See all four treatments computed from your real Kalshi export or Polymarket wallet, side by side. Processed in memory, not stored unless you opt in to share it.