Honest numbers for a tax question nobody has answered

Why this exists

Prediction markets went from a curiosity to billions of dollars of trading in about two years. The tax system did not keep up. As of today the IRS has published no notice, ruling, regulation or form instruction on how an event contract is taxed. Not one.

That leaves a trader with four reasonable ways to report the same year: as capital gains, as ordinary income, as gambling, or under Section 1256’s 60/40 split. The four can produce tax bills thousands of dollars apart. Most tools pick one, usually the cheapest, and present it as the answer. And no mainstream tax software has a box labelled “event contract.”

We think a trader deserves to see all four numbers, the reasoning behind each, and a straight answer about which ones are on firm ground. That is the whole product.

What we believe

1. Show every defensible method, not just the cheapest. The gap between them is the decision you are actually making, so you should see it.
2. Show the work. Every figure in a WagerMints report traces back to your trades and to the IRS instruction or code section it follows. If you can’t check a number, you shouldn’t have to trust it.
3. Say what is unsettled. When something is contested, like Section 1256 for event contracts, we say so in plain words and cite the people on each side.
4. Take the least access we can. Today that means no account, no login and no API key. Our security page spells out exactly what we touch.
5. Never pretend to be your accountant. We build the numbers and the forms. Deciding what to file is your call, ideally with a tax professional.

What WagerMints is, and isn’t

• It is software that reads your Kalshi export or Polymarket wallet, matches every buy to every sale, and prices the year under all four federal treatments.
• It fills the forms each route uses: Form 8949 and Schedule D, Form 6781, and the figures for Schedule 1 and the gambling worksheet.
• It is not a CPA firm, a tax preparer or a law firm, and nothing on this site is tax advice.
• It is federal only. State income tax is on the roadmap and disclosed in every report until then.
• It does not e-file. You take the forms into your own tax software or to your preparer.

How we make money

Seeing your numbers under every method is free and stays free. Pro, which unlocks the filled IRS PDFs and the accountant-ready report, is $39 per tax year, and free for everyone during the beta. See pricing.

We do not run ads, we do not sell data, and no exchange pays us. WagerMints is an independent, self-funded project, which is part of why we can tell you a method is shaky when it is.

When we get something wrong

Tax rules for this market are moving monthly, and we will make mistakes. When we do, we fix the page, change its “last reviewed” date, and say what changed. If you spot an error, email [email protected]. We read every one.

Want to see how the engine is tested? Read how we check our numbers.