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Kalshi and prediction markets in Arkansas: taxes and legal status

Arkansas taxes gambling winnings and prediction market profits as income (2% to 3.9%). Gambling losses only reduce your state tax if you itemize, and only up to your winnings.

As of October 27, 2026, no Arkansas lawsuit or order stops trading on prediction markets. Where it stands

Checked October 27, 2026 against Arkansas’s tax department, court dockets and regulator records.

Arkansas at a glance

Income tax
2% to 3.9%
Gambling losses
Only if you itemize
2026 federal 90% rule
Not stated yet
Prediction markets
AG says it needs a license

Income tax

How does Arkansas tax gambling and prediction market winnings?

Arkansas's top rate for 2025 is 3.9%. Lower brackets and low-income tables also apply.

Arkansas taxes short-term gains like other income. Capital gains go through Form AR1000D with federal Schedule D.

Gambling losses

Can you deduct gambling losses in Arkansas?

Arkansas lets you deduct gambling losses only if you itemize. Claim them on Form AR3, line 27. Losses cannot be more than the winnings you report.

  • Arkansas taxes gambling winnings in full. Report them on Form AR-OI, line 4, and attach your W-2G. Lottery and contest winnings go on line 5.
  • Arkansas uses its own Form AR3. You enter the larger of your AR3 itemized deductions or the Arkansas standard deduction. The 2025 instructions do not say your choice must match your federal return.
  • It is unclear whether Arkansas follows the federal 90% gambling-loss limit from 2026. The Department says only that losses cannot exceed winnings.

Timeline · 1 steps

Every step in Arkansas, in order

1 steps since Oct 23, 2025, oldest first. Each links the filing, order or page it comes from.

  1. Oct 23, 2025

    Attorney general · Arkansas Attorney General · Opinion No. 2025-073

    Attorney General Tim Griffin answered State Sen. Bryan King, saying a business model like Kalshi's sports contracts is gambling that requires a state license. The opinion is not binding on courts and starts no case.

    Arkansas Attorney General, Opinion No. 2025-073 (Oct. 23, 2025)

Federal courts

What the federal courts and the CFTC have said

States say prediction market sports contracts are bets that their gambling laws cover, while Kalshi and the CFTC say they are swaps, a kind of derivative that only the federal Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC regulate. The Third Circuit appeals court sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April 2026, while the Ninth Circuit (Nevada, August 2026) and the Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee, September 2026) ruled for the states, all at the preliminary stage. The Fourth Circuit (Maryland) heard argument in May 2026 and had not ruled as of October 27. New Jersey's petition to the Supreme Court, Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299), is waiting on Kalshi's response due November 9, 2026, and the Court has not yet said whether it will hear the case. On October 9, 2026 the CFTC proposed a rule defining event contracts as swaps.

  1. Apr 6, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty (No. 25-1922)

    By a 2-1 vote, the appeals court for New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware upheld an order that stops New Jersey from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts for now. It found Kalshi likely to win its argument that federal law overrides the state. This is a preliminary ruling, not a final judgment.

    Third Circuit opinion, Apr. 6, 2026

  2. Aug 28, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Assad (No. 25-7516)

    A unanimous three-judge panel upheld the order that lifted Kalshi's protection against Nevada, so Nevada may enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts. The court held that sports contracts are not swaps under federal law. It sent Kalshi's election contracts back to the district court. This is a preliminary ruling.

    Ninth Circuit opinion, Aug. 28, 2026

  3. Sep 2, 2026

    Court · Supreme Court of the United States · Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC (No. 26-299)

    New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit ruling. Kalshi's response is due November 9, 2026 after an extension. Many states, tribes, the NFL and others have filed friend-of-the-court briefs. The Court has not decided whether to take the case.

    Supreme Court docket No. 26-299

  4. Sep 16, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit · Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi, Inc. (No. 25-7504)

    In a case brought by two California tribes, the court held the tribes are likely to win their claim that Kalshi's sports contracts offered on tribal lands break the federal Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, and sent the case back to the lower court. A Lanham Act (false advertising) claim was rejected.

    Ninth Circuit opinion, Sept. 16, 2026

  5. Sep 25, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Schuler (Ohio) and KalshiEX LLC v. Orgel (Tennessee) (Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235)

    A unanimous panel upheld a federal judge's refusal to block Ohio's gambling laws and threw out the order that had protected Kalshi in Tennessee. It held Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps and, even if they were, federal law does not override the states' gambling laws. The cases go back to the lower courts.

    Sixth Circuit opinion, Sept. 25, 2026

  6. Oct 9, 2026

    Regulator · Commodity Futures Trading Commission

    The CFTC proposed a rule that would expressly define event contracts, including those on sports, politics, culture and weather, as swaps, which would place them under federal rather than state oversight. The public may comment for 30 days after Federal Register publication (91 FR 66022). It is a proposal, not a final rule. The same day the CFTC issued an interim rule excluding casino-style gambling products, such as sportsbook wagers and casino games, from the swap definition (91 FR 65969).

    CFTC press release 9310-26, Oct. 9, 2026

  7. Oct 26, 2026

    Court · U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit · KalshiEX LLC v. Martin (Maryland) (No. 25-1892)

    No ruling yet. The appeal was argued May 7, 2026 and the parties were still filing supplemental authorities on Oct. 26, 2026.

    CourtListener docket, Fourth Circuit No. 25-1892

Your trades

Kalshi and Polymarket profits in Arkansas

The IRS hasn’t said how prediction market trades are taxed, so you pick one of four federal methods: capital gains, ordinary income, gambling or Section 1256. Arkansas uses its own definitions, so check how it treats the method you choose federally. If you report as gambling, the loss rules above apply. The four methods, compared.

The court cases are about whether Arkansas can license or stop the platforms. None of them decides how your trades are taxed. Trades you already made, including positions an order made you close, still count in your tax year.

Questions

Questions about Arkansas

Does Arkansas tax gambling winnings?
Arkansas taxes gambling winnings and prediction market profits as income (2% to 3.9%). Gambling losses only reduce your state tax if you itemize, and only up to your winnings.
Can I deduct gambling losses in Arkansas?
Arkansas lets you deduct gambling losses only if you itemize. Claim them on Form AR3, line 27. Losses cannot be more than the winnings you report.
Is Kalshi legal in Arkansas?
As of October 27, 2026, no Arkansas lawsuit or order stops trading on prediction markets. In October 2025 the attorney general issued a formal opinion that a company like Kalshi offering sports contracts without a gaming license is running illegal gambling. An opinion is advice to a legislator, not a court order or enforcement action.
Does the court fight change how my trades are taxed?
No. These cases decide whether a state can license or stop the platforms. None of them decides how your trades are taxed, and trades you already made still count in your tax year.

States with the same rule on losses: California, Colorado, Delaware, DC, Georgia, Hawaii. All states.

Tax facts checked against Arkansas’s own tax pages on October 26, 2026; legal status on October 27, 2026. Rules and cases change, so confirm with current instructions before you file.

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